Tools · free
Trading Expectancy Calculator
The number that tells you whether a system actually makes money. Enter win rate, average win and average loss → expected profit per trade, in dollars and in R.
Estimate only, not financial advice.
How it's calculated
Expectancy (R) = W × (AW ÷ AL) − (1 − W)
100-trade projection = Expectancy ($) × 100
- W — win rate as a decimal (45% = 0.45); 1 − W is the loss rate
- AW — average winning trade, in dollars
- AL — average losing trade, in dollars (entered as a positive number); the R figure treats AL as 1R
Worked example
A system wins 40% of trades, with an average win of $300 and an average loss of $150.
Expectancy ($) = 0.40 × $300 − 0.60 × $150 = $120 − $90 = +$30 per trade.
Expectancy (R) = 0.40 × (300 ÷ 150) − 0.60 = 0.80 − 0.60 = +0.2R (0.2 × $150 = $30).
Over 100 trades: $30 × 100 = +$3,000 — despite losing 60% of the time.
Run it on your real trades
SignalDeck computes all of this automatically from your journaled trades — R-multiple, expectancy, SQN, Kelly, drawdown. Free during beta.
Journal in SignalDeck — FreeMore tools
Frequently Asked Questions
What is trading expectancy?
Expectancy is the average amount you can expect to win (or lose) per trade over many trades: Expectancy = (Win% × Average win) − (Loss% × Average loss). Positive = a profitable system over time; negative = it bleeds, no matter how good any single trade feels.
What is expectancy in R?
Expressed in R (multiples of risk), expectancy = Win% × (avg win in R) − Loss%. An expectancy of +0.3R means you net about a third of your risk per trade on average — multiply by trades and by risk-per-trade to project P&L.
What is a good expectancy for a trading system?
Any expectancy above zero is profitable over the long run, and many traders treat roughly +0.2R to +0.5R per trade as a solid, realistic edge after costs. Judge it together with trade frequency: +0.1R over 500 trades (50R) out-earns +0.5R over 50 trades (25R).
Can a system with a low win rate have positive expectancy?
Yes — a low win rate is profitable as long as average wins are large enough relative to average losses. At a 30% win rate, a 3:1 average win-to-loss ratio gives 0.30 × 3 − 0.70 = +0.2R per trade; break-even at that win rate needs wins about 2.33 times the size of losses.
How many trades do I need to trust an expectancy number?
Treat 30 trades as a bare minimum and 100 or more as a reasonable sample, because expectancy from a handful of trades is dominated by luck. Small-sample averages can flip from positive to negative as more trades come in; the estimate stabilizes as the sample grows.
Get expectancy, SQN and win rate calculated from your real trades: see SignalDeck Analytics and R-multiple trading in SignalDeck.