Strategy Backtester

Test your edge before
the market does.

Walk-Forward Analysis catches overfitting. 1,000-path Monte Carlo models your worst-case drawdown. Grid-search finds robust parameters. Then overlay your live trades on the theoretical curve — all inside the same journal.

Walk-Forward Analysis — IS vs OOS split with a plain-English Pass/Fail verdict.
Monte Carlo simulation — 1,000 paths, P5 worst-case drawdown before you risk a dollar.
Grid-search optimizer — up to 500 parameter combinations ranked by robustness.
Journal overlay — compare your live execution against the theoretical equity curve.

Or read first — what is Walk-Forward Analysis? →

Walk-Forward Analysis · SMA 20/50 · SPY · 3Y
COMPLETE
In-Sample Return
+142%
24 months IS
Out-of-Sample
+48%
12 months OOS
IS Sharpe
1.84
OOS Sharpe
1.41
Walk-Forward: Pass — Not Overfitted
OOS performance holds — strategy generalizes to unseen data

The only reliable
overfitting test.

A strategy that only works on the data it was built on isn't an edge — it's a memory. Walk-Forward Analysis splits your data: optimize on two-thirds, test on the third it never saw.

If the strategy falls apart on out-of-sample data, it's curve-fit. SignalDeck runs the split automatically and delivers a plain-English Pass/Fail verdict so you know before going live.

See your worst-case drawdown
before you live it.

A single backtest path is a lottery result. Monte Carlo simulation shuffles your trade history 1,000 times and shows you the full distribution of possible outcomes — including the P5 worst-case drawdown you should be sized for.

Most backtesting tools show one path. One path hides 999 ways it can go wrong. Size your live position to survive the 5th percentile, not the median.

Monte Carlo · 1,000 paths · SMA 20/50
P5 Drawdown
-24.1%
Median Return
+142%
P(Profit)
91.3%
Grid-Search · RSI Mean Reversion · 216 combinations
Best parameters by Sharpe
RSI(14) · OB 72 · OS 28 Sharpe 2.1
RSI(14) · OB 70 · OS 30 Sharpe 1.9
RSI(21) · OB 72 · OS 28 Sharpe 1.7
Robustness check
Top params hold across ±2 RSI period — not a single-point peak.

Find parameters that are
robust, not lucky.

Grid-search runs up to 500 parameter combinations in a single pass. The goal isn't finding the combination that peaks on historical data — it's finding the combination that performs across a range of nearby values.

A parameter set that only works at exactly RSI(14) with OB=70 is fragile. A set that holds across RSI(12–16) with OB=68–72 is robust. SignalDeck shows you both.

Then link the backtest to your live journal strategy — and overlay the theoretical equity curve against your actual trades to see exactly where execution diverges from theory.

16 built-in strategies. Up to 5 years of data.

Test any strategy out of the box. Tune it with grid-search. Validate it with Walk-Forward. Then trade it live and compare the execution against the model.

SMA Crossover EMA Crossover RSI Mean Reversion Bollinger Bands MACD Trailing Stops Walk-Forward Analysis Monte Carlo (1,000 paths) Grid-Search Optimizer Benchmark Overlay Journal Equity Link Kelly / Fixed-Risk Sizing

The only journal with all four

Walk-Forward Analysis, Monte Carlo, grid-search, and a live journal overlay. No other trading journal combines them.

Approach Walk-Forward Monte Carlo Grid-Search Journal Overlay
SignalDeck
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Spreadsheet

Competitor features change — verify current specs on their sites. See full comparisons →

Stop going live on untested strategies.

Walk-Forward Analysis, Monte Carlo, and grid-search in a single backtest — then compare your live execution against the model. Free during beta.

Start free in SignalDeck

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Walk-Forward Analysis?

Walk-Forward Analysis splits your historical data into in-sample (IS) and out-of-sample (OOS) windows. The strategy is optimized on the IS portion and then tested on OOS data it never saw. If performance collapses on OOS, the strategy is curve-fit. SignalDeck delivers a plain-English Pass/Fail verdict.

What does Monte Carlo simulation show for a trading strategy?

Monte Carlo shuffles your trade history 1,000 times to generate a distribution of possible equity curves. The P5 worst-case drawdown tells you what to expect in a genuinely bad variance run — before you're living it. Most backtesting tools only show a single path, which is misleading.

How many strategies and how much historical data?

16 built-in strategies including SMA/EMA crossover, RSI mean reversion, Bollinger Bands, and MACD — tested against up to 5 years of data. Grid-search runs up to 500 parameter combinations per strategy.

Can I link a backtest to my live journal trades?

Yes. SignalDeck lets you link any completed backtest to your live journal strategy and overlays the backtest equity curve against your actual trade history — showing you exactly where execution diverges from theory. Slippage, discipline violations, and timing differences all show up in the gap.